The Shaibu Doctrine: Why 2026 Marks the End of ‘Containment’ in Nigeria’s War on Terror- Deji Adesogan

As Nigeria stands at the threshold of 2026, the national security discourse is undergoing a radical transformation. After years of reactive deployments and the "management" of insurgent threats, the Nigerian Army, under the command of Lt. Gen. Waheed Shaibu, is signaling a move toward strategic elimination.  

The "Shaibu Doctrine" is defined by four critical shifts that promise to redefine the fight against Boko Haram, ISWAP, and bandit networks.

From ‘Desk-Bound’ to ‘Bush-Proven’ Leadership

Lt. Gen. Shaibu, famously nicknamed the “Bush Colonel,” brings a battlefield legitimacy that is rare in modern high command. His philosophy rejects the safety of Abuja headquarters in favor of direct theater presence.

Why it matters: Command presence in operational theatres accelerates decision-making and ensures that the leadership shares the physical and psychological burdens of the frontline troops.

Welfare as an Operational Necessity

One of the most significant shifts under Shaibu is the elevation of Troop Welfare from an administrative task to a combat priority.

The Logic: A soldier who is well-fed, properly rotated, and confident in their family’s support is a soldier who can maintain the high-tempo operations required to dismantle entrenched terror cells.

 Merit-Driven Combat Reform

Shaibu has replaced traditional administrative postings with merit-based appointments.

The Goal: To ensure that commanders are chosen based on their operational track record rather than seniority or political connections. This "Combat Reform" strengthens the Army’s backbone against enemies that exploit leadership gaps and slow coordination.

Strategic Comparison: The 2026 Shift

The Final Variable: National Resolve

Adesogan argues that while the Army now has the right leadership, the success of 2026 depends on the Collective Responsibility of the State.

"The era of accommodation and survival through adaptation for Boko Haram and ISWAP is drawing to a close. What remains is for the state to match the Army’s readiness with unwavering political will and intelligence integration."

Conclusion

If the momentum initiated by Lt. Gen. Shaibu is sustained, 2026 will not be just another year in a long insurgency; it will be the moment the balance of power shifts irreversibly in favor of the Nigerian state. The message to bandits and terrorists is now unmistakable: the time for hiding is over; the time for elimination has arrived.